If present trends continue, limnologists believe that changes in the weather will have a major effect on the dynamics of lakes throughout Europe. Typical climate-related problems include increases in lake productivity, increases in water colour and the increased frequency and severity of algal blooms. The methods currently used to monitor and model lakes were developed when weather patterns were different from those experienced today. Most are based on a deterministic rather than a probabilistic approach and do not properly represent the "cascade of uncertainty" associated with recent climate-change simulations. Many water quality problems that were once assumed to be driven by the local weather are now known to be influenced by climatic events that operate on a global scale. In Europe, the most important effects are those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the north-south movements of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic. An understanding of these "teleconnections" has important consequences for the management of lakes and the implementation of the new Water Framework Directive.If present trends continue, limnologists believe that changes in the weather will have a major effect on the dynamics of lakes throughout Europe. Typical climate-related problems include increases in lake productivity, increases in water colour and the increased frequency and severity of algal blooms. The methods currently used to monitor and model lakes were developed when weather patterns were different from those experienced today. Most are based on a deterministic rather than a probabilistic approach and do not properly represent the "cascade of uncertainty" associated with recent climate-change simulations. Many water quality problems that were once assumed to be driven by the local weather are now known to be influenced by climatic events that operate on a global scale. In Europe, the most important effects are those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the north-south movements of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic. An understanding of these "teleconnections" has important consequences for the management of lakes and the implementation of the new Water Framework Directive.
